One may use the geological term Tectonic Change to describe the year 2024 that saw the Russia-Ukraine War, the destruction of Palestine, an armed conflict between Iran and Israel, the return of Donald Trump, the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed, the impeachment of the South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and a powerful Israeli airstrike on a weapons depot in Tartus (Syria) on December 16 (2024), destroying a Scud missile facility. Reports suggest that the damage might be far more extensive, with speculation that a small nuclear weapon could have been used in the attack! In a sense, the global community has felt tectonic tremors while welcoming the year 2025! The tremendous progress of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the subsequent escalation of the environmental crisis in 2024 prompted experts to think about the future of human civilisation quite seriously.

Recent events in the majority of democratic countries have helped the international community to realise that hatred and conflict have started influencing a (democratic) society, with the Ultra Right-Wing Politics using repression as a tool for exercising power. Hence, pressure and fear have replaced trust, unity and solidarity in a democratic system.

As far as the Global Economy is concerned, the year 2025 is also going to be a turbulent one. US President-elect Donald Trump has already hinted that he would trigger a trade war with major global powers, especially China, by increasing tariffs on imports. Analysts are of the opinion that conflicts and wars in Eastern Europe and West Asia, too, could exacerbate the global trade crisis, apart from triggering a recession! It could also spread conservative politics in Germany, France, the US and other parts of the globe. The US Dollar is likely to stay stronger for longer, increasing fiscal pressure on countries, highly dependent on import.

The days ahead do not look bright for the Developing Nations either as they are yet to fully recover from the shock of COVID-19 Pandemic. The Climate Crisis is also there. Although Trump has called Climate Change ‘mythical‘, ‘non-existent‘ and ‘an expensive hoax‘, the long-term effects of Global Warming could create further troubles for the developing countries.

At the same time, the rise of Politics of Intolerance could unsettle border regions in various parts of the globe. The socio-political dominance of the majority community could also increase in the coming months. Most importantly, the dire state of the economy could create more troubles in such an environment. Ongoing ethnic conflicts in Africa, Asia and Europe may also destabilise a number of countries in 2025.

The first sunrise of the year does not promise that a good sense and healthy culture would drive civil society. Hence, the worry remains that the New Year would witness many upheavals!

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das