The younger generations leaned to the two far ends of Germany’s political spectrum in February 23, 2025 election, as the Die Linke (The Left) and the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) performed really well.

While the Christian Democrat Union (CDU) party managed to secure more than 28% of the votes in order to win the Federal Election, defeating incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD); the AfD finished second with 20% of votes, the biggest gain for a right-wing party since the Second World War. Interestingly, the Left bagged 8.7% of votes, an unexpected result indeed. Analysts are of the opinion that young Germans want to see the 69-year-old CDU leader, Friedrich Merz, as their next Chancellor. This time, a record-breaking 83.5% of people cast their votes, the highest turnout since German unification in 1990.

Although Merz is all set to become the next German Chancellor, he has to inherit a divided nation that is split over immigration, a weak economy and ideological differences. According to political analysts, the victory of the CDU would certainly trigger a major shift in Berlin’s foreign policy, as Merz has hinted that he would try his best to strengthen European defence capabilities. In other words, Germany would encourage Europe to move towards greater independence from the US.

Analysts have also opined that the new government in Berlin would face tough challenges while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape mainly because of the ongoing Ukraine crisis and the Donald Trump Administration‘s evolving relationship with Russia. Hence, negotiations to form a Coalition Government would be quite crucial as it would determine Berlin’s stance on the Ukraine issue and reforming defence spending. In such a scenario, it is expected that key figures, like Lars Klingbeil and Boris Pistorius, would play significant roles.

The incoming German government would have to confront a rapidly changing security scenario in Europe, if Berlin wants to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine. Timm Beichelt, a Professor at the European University Viadrina, told Eurasianet that while there was “an autocratic and totalitarian aggressor” in Moscow, “an unpredictable actor within the system of checks and balances” was there in the White House. He stressed that the “aggressor versus friend” dichotomy recently disappeared, with an unprecedented shift in Germany’s trans-Atlantic relations taking place.

Hence, the talks between Merz’s centre-right CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on the formation of a new government would be a critical one. And, Merz would be able to address the security issues only after the formation of the government. After winning the election, the senior CDU leader stated that he would try to boost the European defence capabilities, stating: “We can really achieve independence from the US step by step.” Merz, who planned to persuade France to extend its nuclear umbrella over Germany before the election, also hinted that there would be no change in Berlin’s policy towards NATO. “We will still be talking about NATO in its current form. We will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly,” he told the press.

Professor Beichelt believes that the incoming German government would have to handle the security-related issues quite carefully. “It is a completely different constellation now. So, it might be time for the German government to look at (the Treaty on European Union) and somehow spell out to what extent this could actually be an operational mechanism” to bolster European defence capabilities, he said.

Meanwhile, Zsuzsanna Végh, a Programme Officer at the German Marshall Fund, is of the opinion that the Merz Administration might act as “a driving force behind strengthening the defence agenda within the EU”. At the same time, she has admitted that the transformation would take time. Végh believes that the Trump Administration would accept a ceasefire agreement that would be highly beneficial to Russia. In that case, Europe may have to suffer a lot. “The US is moving forward without Europe right now because it sees the EU as a minor player on the field,” she added.

Perhaps, it would not be possible for Merz to bolster defence ties with Ukraine especially after President Trump’s heated arguments with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy in Washington DC on February 28, 2025. Although Merz promised to supply long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine in December 2024 (if he became chancellor), such a move would certainly irk the US. It is difficult to predict whether Merz would go ahead with these deliveries in order to demonstrate Berlin’s leadership on the Ukrainian agenda or would change his plan.

Végh has claimed that circumstances have become quite complex, stressing: “The context itself is changing rapidly.” Members of the Free Democrats (FDP), a centrist party that has failed to make it into the Parliament, have urged Merz to act immediately. However, the fact is that Berlin would not act “unilaterally” on the missile-supply issue, but to discuss the issue with Washington DC and other European countries before making a final decision in this regard.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das