Given the proliferation of threats made by US President Donald John Trump against Iran, including in his September 23, 2026 address to the UN General Assembly, and the frequency of his back-downs from those threats; it is not surprising that there is doubt that he will follow through on his warning that he may decide to annihilate the Islamic Republic after the November 3, 2026 midterm election. There are many reasons for such doubt, among them, the President’s bluster, the failure thus far to achieve military success, the problem of an overstretched military, the resilience demonstrated by the Iranian people and the growing opposition of the American public to this war.

Nevertheless, the spin machine of the war hawks is working overtime to convince everyone that a serious strike is coming. The latest scenario for a US victory is spun from the narrative that the combination of the blockade of Iranian oil shipments, and the Trump-Bessent sanctions regime is wrecking Iran’s economy and will force Tehran to accept Washington DC’s terms of surrender. At the same time, reports that oil is getting through the Iranian blockade led President Trump to forecast that the oil price, inflation and interest rates would soon drop, leading to an economic boom for the US.

Adding to the picture of the likelihood of renewed fighting is the announcement of the deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the area and the sending of an additional 10,000 troops to back-up the 50,000 already there. The word is going out through pro-Trump networks that the convergence of these factors will convince Iran to submit or be obliterated by a massive US strike.

Finally, there is the talk of the possibility that if all else fails, President Trump may have given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu a go-ahead for Israel to hit Iran with tactical nuclear weapons. This scenario was mooted by Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson last June, while former British diplomat and analyst Alastair Crooke said on October 4, 2026 that one could conclude that Trump’s threat to annihilate Iran includes advocating the use of nuclear weapons. Both cited the US President’s dwindling popularity as a result of the war, Netanyahu’s desperation and the absence of a conventional military strategy, as reasons for this decision.

The reasoning behind this war scenario calls to mind that US statesman Lyndon LaRouche often remarked that one must never underestimate insanity as a factor in history.

As for Iran, its leadership has repeatedly indicated a willingness to negotiate to end the war, but reaffirmed its commitment to fight to maintain its sovereignty. On the prospect of reaching a diplomatic resolution, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that “previous experience and the US stance show that the other side is not serious in using diplomacy”.

Will President Trump or those behind-the-scenes oligarchical Trump whisperers directing US policy, make the decision to annihilate or obliterate Iran, if it doesn’t submit? It cannot be ruled out.

As for the prospect of the war spreading, the Israelis are continuing the Gazafication of southern Lebanon and the West Bank, while the Saudis are backing an offensive by their Yemeni proxy, whose President announced military operations to take back territory now controlled by the Houthis.

This article was first published in Executive Intelligence Review (EIR) Strategic Alert weekly newsletter (Volume 40, No. 41) on October 8, 2026.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das