First, it was Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton in 2016 and then, Kamala Devi Harris in 2024… Donald John Trump has shattered the dream of these two women to become the first female President of the modern world’s oldest democracy in a span of eight years! The Politics of Populism of the 78-year-old controversial leader has blown away all public opinion polls in 2024. Analyses suggest that three factors – the Republican candidate’s strong stance on inflation, immigration and the ongoing wars in West Asia and Ukraine – have helped Trump to win the electoral battle against Harris. Harris’ primary target was to gain support from Hispanic-speaking Latinos, Afro-Americans, women, college-educated White youths and working-class people. However, she failed to achieve her target. On the other hand, Trump returned to the White House on the basis of continuous campaigning over the past eight months during which he gave 20 interviews.

Inflation
The economy was quite an important electoral issue in the inflation-ridden US in 2024. A large section of rural voters traditionally supports the Republican Party. However, the working class of the urban areas generally vote in favour of the Democratic candidates. This time, a huge number of Democrat voters, plagued by inflation and fiscal woes, either trusted Trump at the last minute or avoided the polling booths! It has ultimately helped Trump to perform well in Swing States, like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine.

Trump successfully managed to instil the fear of outsourcing, layoffs, recession and decline of manufacturing sectors among the working class. At the same time, he promised to control inflation and to provide people with financial security. A huge number of working-class people have voted for Trump due to the fear of losing their jobs. Overall, the lower middle-class and middle-class voters have responded to his appeal. Trump has performed really well even in Pennsylvania, the State dominated by Coloured people and the Hispanic-speaking Latinos!

The Immigration Issue
Some political analysts are of the opinion that the issue of immigration has had a major impact on 2024 US Presidential Elections, along with inflation. In particular, Trump’s victory in States known as the Rust Belt shows that he has managed to crack the traditional working class vote bank of the Democrats. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said that he would take strict action against illegal immigrants, protect the factories and ensure financial security of the working class after becoming the President. The results show that his campaign has a great impact on the voters.

An opinion poll released before the Presidential Elections revealed that the number of voters who considered immigration as a top priority rose from 4.8% to 14.6% between 2009 and 2024. Their number increased the most (about 5.4%) during the tenure of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr (2021-24) in the last 15 years! Currently, 47.8 million immigrants live in the US. Many White and even Black workers feel that immigrants are hurting their job security. As Harris did not take a tough stance on the issue of immigration, they have voted in favour of Trump.

Since Trump became President in 2016, a number of tragic events, like building a wall on the Mexico-US border, sending back a huge number of infiltrators, separating people (including women and children) from their families at the border, etc., have taken place. After taking charge as President in 2020, Biden decided to provide refugees arriving at the border with humanitarian aid and safe shelters. The number of refugees at the Mexican border was just 74,000 in 2020. However, it reached 0.3 million in December 2023, leading to a chaotic situation in the border-towns! This scenario prompted the Governors of Texas, Florida and other States to send many illegal immigrants to New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. As per an opinion poll published at that period of time, nearly 35% of the US voters strongly believed that the number of undocumented immigrants should be strictly controlled. The victory of Trump has proven that opinion poll right.

Israel, Ukraine & Other Issues
During a face-to-face Presidential Debate with Harris in Philadelphia in early September (2024), Trump reportedly said that he would take all the necessary steps to prevent unrest in West Asia, if elected. He also said that he would “end” the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of becoming President!

It may be noted that the Biden Administration has consistently provided arms and military equipment to Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s forces since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. On the other hand, a series of unrest began after the Palestinian Hamas Movement launched an attack on Israel from Gaza on October 7, 2023. The Zionist Regime has got involved in an armed conflict with Iran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia Islamist political outfit and paramilitary group, too. The tension in West Asia has prompted the Pentagon to send additional troops to the Persian Gulf region in three phases, putting the taxpayers in the US under pressure.

In such a scenario, many believe that Trump, reckless by nature, can bring the situation (in Israel and Ukraine) under control. A number of voters also kept in mind the old equation of Trump with Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and relied on his ‘Make America Great Again‘ slogan. In addition, a section of the US citizens, fearful of Islamic fundamentalism, has tacitly supported Trump’s controversial comments! Significantly, a segment of Arab-Americans, upset with the Biden Administration‘s Israel policies, voted in favour of Trump this time, although they are traditionally known as supporters of the Democratic Party.

There was a storm of controversy over Trump’s opposition to Right to Abortion in the 2020 Presidential Elections. And, Trump lost to Biden four years ago. This time, he avoided this particular issue during his campaign. His strategy worked as the feminists did not get an opportunity to target him! The Democrats have also failed to create public opinion against Trump by accusing him of triggering the Capitol Hill violence four years ago during their campaign! In fact, Trump had realised that he would not be comfortable with Harris’ sophisticated arguments based on statistics during the Philadelphia debate. Thereafter, he did not participate in a single Presidential Debate!

Mistakes Made By Democrats
Political analysts have opined that the Democrats have alienated a large section of young voters by backing the aggressive anti-Arab policy of Israel. Undoubtedly, Harris has paid the price of the impact of the Gaza Crisis. If one abandons Liberalism and Tolerance, then it becomes impossible for the person to establish Nationalist Conservatism and Aggression as wrongdoings. Maybe Harris shall get some time to introspect about exactly what values she and her party believe in, and why they turn those values into such blatant opportunism.

History Repeats Itself After 132 Years
In modern US history, only one President staged his political return before Trump and it happened 132 years ago… in 1893! Stephen Grover Cleveland (March 18, 1837 – June 24, 1908) had served as the 22nd and 24th President of the US from 1885 to 1889 and from 1893 to 1897, respectively. He was the first Democrat to win the Presidency after the Civil War and was one of two Democrat Presidents, followed by Thomas Woodrow Wilson (December 28, 1856 – February 3, 1924), in an era when Republicans dominated the Presidency between 1869 and 1933. Cleveland had won the popular vote in three Presidential Elections (1884, 1888 and 1892). In 1888, Benjamin Harrison (August 20, 1833 – March 13, 1901) won the electoral college vote, as well as the Presidency. However, Cleveland won the electoral college in 1892, becoming the first US President to serve non-consecutive presidential terms. It was a feat not repeated by any candidate until the 2024 Presidential Elections, with Trump becoming the 45th and 47th President of the US.

The Global Impact
The victory of Trump has made the hardline Jews exuberant! Hence, one can expect that Israel would intensify attacks in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. However, the Ukraine War may decelerate, as the rapprochement between Trump and Putin is at least partly true. The US may return to aggressive non-cooperation on environmental issues, as it did in 2017 when President Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement. Hence, the global community should be prepared for a new international relations arrangement.

Meanwhile, it is certain that Trump’s second term would be tougher than the first!

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das