It was not supposed to take long for Russia to annex Ukraine, as President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin believed that a few days might be enough for his Armed Forces to conclude the special military operation. He also believed that it would be a smooth operation just like the invasion of Crimea in 2014. The President expected that the Russian troops would occupy much of Ukraine and he would install a puppet Government in Kiev later! However, two years have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the war has claimed the lives of many Russian, as well as Ukrainian, soldiers. Millions have also become homeless. While some have fled to other parts of their countries, others have taken shelter abroad as refugees.

As per a study, the recovery and reconstruction work in Ukraine would cost more than USD 4.86 billion. Kiev is also facing a difficult situation in the battlefield, as the former Soviet Republic is experiencing a shortage in manpower and armaments. The Republicans rejected US President Joe Biden‘s offer of financial aid to Kiev in the Senate in October 2023, creating troubles for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy. Furthermore, former US President Donald Trump‘s recent statements have indicated that the problem of Ukraine would increase, if the Americans re-elect him in the upcoming Presidential Elections. Member-countries of the European Union (EU), too, have been unable to address Kiev’s arms shortages and to boost defence production.

Meanwhile, the number of people who are being recruited in the Ukrainian Army is not enough as the Zelenskyy Administration still limits the minimum age for joining the Army to 27. As far as Western military aid is concerned, Ukraine did not receive much support from Europe and the US in 2023. Instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to retreat from Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region. As expected, this development boosted morale of the Russian soldiers.

It seems that the current situation is in favour of President Putin. The Russian strongman has seemingly become unstoppable, especially after the sudden (and mysterious) demise of Alexei Anatolyevich Navalny, who was advocating reforms against corruption in Russia and also against the Putin Administration. In spite of making several attempts, the US and its Western allies have failed to hit the Russian economy hard. On the contrary, Moscow has recorded a fiscal surplus by exporting crude oil to foreign countries. It helps the Kremlin to continue with the war. Russia is way ahead of Ukraine in military strength and also in defence production. Now, President Putin has a simple task in his hand… to see how long the West can support Ukraine while going through a financial turmoil.

However, chances of a Russian victory in the war are slim. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has changed the security perspective of Europe, fundamentally. The European countries have realised that they cannot solely depend on the US anymore. While Finland has become a NATO member, Sweden shall be the next. Other countries in Europe are all set to sign bilateral security agreements among themselves. Meanwhile, the G7 countries have decided to stand by Ukraine despite the difficulties. Hence, Kiev has no choice, but to continue the war.

So, the war between the two former Soviet Republics is still going on, and Europe cannot ensure peace in the next few months.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das