The dispute between Argentina and Britain over the Falkland Islands has started experiencing its most intense period of tension after 44 years of the Falklands War (April 2 – June 14, 1982). Although the current escalation is playing out through aggressive legal, economic and diplomatic battles over the vast offshore oil reserves of the region, it may turn into a military conflict in the coming days. The Armed Forces of the two countries are currently engaged in military exercises aimed at recapturing the island, yet again. The question arises here: What will the US do if a war breaks out between Argentina and Britain?

Around the beginning of the 21st Century, the British Administration extended a major offer to Argentina to join them in the search for reserves of liquid gold. Although Buenos Aires initially agreed to it, the South American country later backed away. Consequently, the British Government decided to explore the Sea Lion oil field located in the North Falkland Basin in 2012. Experts estimate that there is a potential to extract 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil from that area. The Sea Lion project is a joint venture between British and Israeli energy firms that is on track for extraction. However, Argentina views this unilateral resource exploitation as a direct threat to its sovereignty and national security.

The Western media have reported that development drilling for the Sea Lion oil field off the Falkland Islands is scheduled to begin in early 2027, with first oil extraction targeted for 2028. The Sea Lion offshore development mega-project, located 220km north of the Falkland Islands, is being operated by Israel’s Navitas Petroleum (65% stake) and Rockhopper Exploration (35% stake) of Britain. The budgeted cost for the First Phase of the Sea Lion Oil Project is USD 2.1 billion from the Final Investment Decision (FID) to project completion, which includes USD 1.8 billion to reach first oil. The total capital expenditure for this multi-phase project is estimated at around USD 4 billion for its initial core development stages.

Meanwhile, Argentina issued stern warnings immediately after the British Government began searching for crude oil reserves in the area surrounding the Falklands. Although Britain claims that the Falkland Islanders have a democratic right to self-determination and to develop their own economic resources, Argentina considers the offshore hydrocarbon development as an illegal exploitation of its natural resources on its claimed continental shelf. Buenos Aires has made it clear that such illegal activities would not be tolerated in its territories.

To put an end to the Falklands dispute, Britain organised Falkland Islands Sovereignty Referendum on march 10-11, 2013. Interestingly, 99.8% of voters chose to remain a self-governing British Overseas Territory, with a 92% turnout (1,517 yes votes and three no votes). Nevertheless, the political tension between the two countries has not eased. Delivering a speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2026, Argentine President Javier Gerardo Milei raised the issue of the Falkland Islands. He stressed that all the islands in the region belong to Argentina and the British Government had no legal right to extract the natural resources found there.

Now, President Milei has threatened the firms involved in the Sea Lion oil project to vacate the area within two weeks. Britain fears that Argentina might attempt to seize the Falklands again by launching a military operation, much like it did in 1982. In that case, Britain will have to set out to reclaim the islands. Hence, the British Navy has placed an emphasis on military exercises. At the same time, London is increasing engagement with Washington DC.

British Prime Minister Andrew ‘Andy’ Murray Burnham and US President Donald John Trump held their first face-to-face meeting on September 22, 2026 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. In response to a question about the Falklands, President Trump stated that US support for Britain in a future conflict with Argentina might not be guaranteed. He recalled the UK’s role in the ongoing US-Iran War, saying: “Your country was not there to help me.” The US President stressed: “I was there when they had the first war. That was a long time ago, and I watched it so carefully. You comforted yourselves very well. You took it back pretty strongly, but it’s a long way away.”

It seems that the US President, who maintains cordial relations with his Argentine counterpart, would not help Britain to wage a war against Argentina.

Meanwhile,

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das