Currently, Pakistan is going through an acute economic crisis and also experiencing a Civil War-like situation! Anti-Government protesters have raised slogans of Azadi (Freedom) in major cities, including Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Rawalpindi. Experts in International Relations are of the opinion that the stage is set for Pakistan to break into three-four pieces!

Fresh political unrest began in the South Asian country in September 2024, with former Prime Minister Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi‘s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Party leading the mass protests. Leaders and supporters of the PTI have not only demanded release of Khan from jail, but also demanded resignation of Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif (also the leader of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Party). They have argued that Prime Minister Sharif and his associates seized power by imprisoning Khan with the help of the Pakistani Army!

Reports suggest that the Shehbaz Sharif Administration is struggling to handle the mass protests led by the PTI. The Government has deployed the Pak Rangers, along with the Police, to bring the protesters under control. Even the Army is being used in some places! After all these, the images of Pakistan published in the global media are really scary. The security personnel have been seen charging batons indiscriminately and shelling tear gas on the protestors. Tanks are also roaming on some important streets of major cities.

The PTI has alleged that the Government of Pakistan is using force to suppress the protests! Hence, the Army officers and soldiers are using bullets against the protestors and selectively detaining staunch supporters of Khan with the help of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Pakistani spy agency! However, the resolve of Khan’s party has become stronger! The protesters recently gathered in front of the Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi, ignoring the brutality of the Pak Rangers.

Interestingly, Khan had predicted a couple of years ago that the state of Pakistan would be like this! In June 2022, the cricketer-turned-politician stated: “If the establishment does not make the right decisions, then I can assure (you) in writing that (before everyone else) they and the Army will be destroyed because what will become of the country if it goes bankrupt. Also, Pakistan will be denuclearised and break into three-IK (Indian Kashmir).” According to some political analysts, Imran Khan’s prediction is all set to become true! Pakistan has four main provinces: Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is believed that the differences between these provinces on the basis of ethnicity, language and culture would be the reason for the break-up of Pakistan.

Nearly 90% residents of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province are Pashtuns whose mother tongue is Pashto. Kabul has been claiming this western province of Pakistan, adjacent to Afghanistan, as its own for a long time! As around 80% of the population of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa communicate in Poshto, it has strengthened the claim of Afghanistan. The border dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan has a long history. After the Partition of the Indian Subcontinent in 1947, a referendum was held in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and its residents decided to stay in Pakistan. However, the then rulers of that particular region wanted to join Afghanistan! Kabul used this opportunity to encourage the Afghan rulers of the province to start the Pashtun Movement. Later, a militant organisation, named Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban, was formed. Islamabad alleges that the current Taliban rulers of Afghanistan are backing these terrorists! TTP has not only carried out deadly attacks on the Pakistani Army several times in the last few years, but also established their own regime in some villages of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Hence, a sort of civil war has been going on between the outfit and the Pakistani Army.

After the First Anglo-Afghan War in 1983, the colonial British rulers established a permanent border between Afghanistan and British India. The border is popularly known as Durand Line. After Partition, Islamabad accepted this line as the international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, Kabul has never accepted the Durand Line as the international border, claiming that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is basically a part of Afghanistan! The Government of Pakistan recently decided to erect a barbed wire fence along the Durand Line. Afghanistan strongly opposed the move and the Armed Forces of the two countries exchanged fires near the border.

Balochistan has also been staging protests for a long time, demanding a separate statehood! The largest province of Pakistan is rich with mineral resources, like gold, copper, iron, marble and natural gas. The Baloch people allege that neighbouring Punjab Province is benefiting from these resources! They are also against the Economic Corridor project jointly implemented by Beijing and Islamabad to connect Xinjiang Province of China with Balochistan’s Gwadar Port. The Baloch people are of the opinion that China is intruding into the local economy through this project! Furthermore, the atrocities committed by the Pakistani Army have reached extreme levels in Balochistan, prompting the Baloch people to form their own Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)!

Sindh Province of Pakistan has the largest population of minority Hindus, while the provincial capital of Karachi is considered as the business capital of the country. According to experts, the financial assets of Sindh are held by a handful of Karachi residents. The scenario triggered the Sindh National Movement in the 1970s. It was basically a Sindh-based separatist movement, seeking to create a homeland for Sindhis by establishing an ethnic state, called Sindhudesh (Country of Sindhis), which would be either autonomous within Pakistan or independent from it. The current activities of the Pakistani Army and the ISI could turn this decades-old movement into a deadly one!

In the 1970s, the Khalistan Movement began in the northern Indian Province of Punjab. Reports suggest that the Pakistani spy agency, ISI, was the originator of this separatist movement. Later, top leaders of the Khalistan Movement fled from India and settled mainly in Canada, Europe and the US. Now, they are conducting this movement from foreign soil. This movement seeks to create a homeland for Sikhs by establishing an ethno‐religious sovereign state, called Khalistan (Land of the Khalsa) in the Punjab region. The proposed boundaries of Khalistan vary between different groups; as some suggest the entirety of the Sikh-majority Indian Province of Punjab, while others claim that the proposed state would include the Pakistani Province of Punjab and other parts of northern India. Meanwhile, the Pakistani city of Lahore has been proposed as the capital of Khalistan.

Political analysts fear that Pakistan might break into pieces mainly because of the ongoing financial crisis and domestic issues! As per a recent World Bank report, the daily income of 35% of the Pakistani citizens is quite low. Also, inflation has risen to as much as 38% (the highest in South Asia) in recent months, while food inflation has reached 48% (the highest since 2016). Amid this situation, the common man struggles to make ends meet! According to analysts, the scenario would certainly have a negative impact on the political future of Pakistan.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das