The Russia-Ukraine War has been going on since February 24, 2022 and there is still no possibility that peace will be restored in Eastern Europe, soon! Instead, the conflict is constantly intensifying. Also, there are also speculations that Russia may attack neighbouring Georgia next. Former Russian President Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev has triggered such a speculation with a Telegram post, stating that Georgia is “moving rapidly along the Ukrainian path, into the dark abyss. Usually, this sort of thing ends very badly“. He made this comment on December 1, 2024.

It may be noted that strong Anti-Government Protests have rocked Georgia in recent times. The crisis began on November 29 (2024) after the government’s controversial decision to delay the former Soviet Republic’s bid to join the European Union (EU). The Police have detained more than 200 protesters in Tbilisi since then. A conflict has also begun between President Salome Zourabichvili and Irakli Kobakhidze, the newly-elected Prime Minister of Georgia, over this particular issue. Kobakhidze’s Dream Party won the Parliamentary Elections on October 26, 2024. However, President Zourabichvili declared the newly-formed government illegitimate, alleging that the election was rigged with the help of Moscow. He said that it was an old Russian method to undermine freedom of speech.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Kobakhidze has demanded President Zourabichvili’s resignation. However, the President has made it clear that he would not resign unless a legitimate government forms. The majority of Georgian people have backed their President, calling for an ostracization of the Parliament. They have strongly criticised the Kobakhidze Administration’s decision to delay Georgia’s bid to join the EU. Thousands of people have taken to the streets in different parts of the country. Dream Party is popularly known as a pro-Russian political outfit. Hence, the Kremlin helped the party to rig the Parliamentary Elections in October 2024.

The people of Georgia want their country to become a member of the EU as they still remember their bitter post-Soviet past. Georgia and Russia engaged in a war in 2008, 17 years after the fall of the Soviet Union (in December 1991). The armed conflict took place after Russia claimed some regions of Georgia as its own. Georgia became an Independent State after the fall of the Soviet Union and the province of South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia almost immediately! In response, Georgia sent troops to South Ossetia, apart from withdrawing the autonomy given to the province. The 1991-92 War between Georgia and South Ossetia failed to resolve the crisis. South Ossetia drafted its own Constitution, held Presidential Elections and started running a separate economy. Georgia and South Ossetia got involved in a war in 2004, yet again! Although Georgia wanted to give autonomy to South Ossetia on condition that the latter would have to withdraw its demand for independence, the province wanted to secede by holding a referendum. The Georgian Parliament also passed a law, seeking to create a temporary administration in South Ossetia. Even an international initiative to resolve the crisis through peaceful negotiation went in vain.

South Ossetia intensified its demand for a separate statehood after Kosovo‘s independence from Serbia on February 17, 2008 and also refused to share power with Georgia. Then, the Government of Georgia reportedly decided to liberate Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, from the separatists. After considering the situation, Russia declared a war against Georgia in 2008 and South Ossetia managed to liberate its territories from Georgia with the help of Moscow. Since then, the relationship between Georgia and Russia has deteriorated.

Now, former President Medvedev and Dmitry Sergeyevich Peskov, the Press Secretary for President Vladimir Putin, have claimed that there is a similarity between the current political situation in Georgia and the events that took place in Ukraine in 2013-14. Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych, the then pro-Russian President of Ukraine, decided not to sign a political association and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU in November 2013, triggering a wave of large-scale protests known as Euromaidan. Instead, Yanukovych had chosen closer ties to Moscow. Currently, similar events are taking place in Georgia. Hence, political analysts have predicted that Russia might attack Georgia mainly to suppress the Anti-Government Protests!

However, others believe that Russia is quite worried about neighbouring Georgia for a different reason. Georgia (and other regions of the Caucasus) lies between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. While the Black Sea is a famous maritime trade route as it is located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, the Caspian Sea is rich in natural gas. It is hence Russia may attack Georgia in order to take full control of the Black Sea, as well as the Caspian Sea!

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das