Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin thought that Ukrainians would welcome his Army with flowers, if Moscow dethroned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy. Historian Dominic Lieven, a specialist on Imperial Russia who teaches at the London School of Economics (LSE), made this comment while speaking at an event in India on January 23, 2024.

Lieven, who has a close tie to Russia through his family lines, is of the opinion that there is a deep connection between Russian and Ukrainian ethnicity. Again, regions, like Crimea and Donbass, are of strategic importance to Russia. Hence, the crisis created by the Russia-Ukraine War is a serious one, and peace may not return to this particular region in near future, stressed the historian.

Lieven also believes that the future of this conflict depends on several other factors, such as whether Donald Trump will be able to win the 2024 US Presidential Election, the nature of US-China relationship and how much aid Ukraine will receive from the US and Europe. According to the former member of late British Prime Minister Margaret Hilda Thatcher‘s Advisory Committee on Foreign Relations, the Western countries often underestimate Russia’s strength. He opined that President Putin, who had served as a KGB officer in the past, would never accept the rise of an Independent Ukraine. It is quite natural for the Russian strongman to have a glimpse of the conspiracy of the CIA behind the rise of Ukraine.

Lieven is of the opinion that the West has made a mistake by starting discussions on Ukraine’s NATO membership. He told the audience that India would have to play a crucial role in global geopolitics in view of various crises, including the Ukraine War and Climate Change. Explaining the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a senior Russian official said that the relation between the two former Soviet Republics was just like the relation between India and Pakistan! The official admitted that the Kremlin was trying to install a friendly government in Kiev.

It may be noted that in December 2023, Ohio Senator James David Vance advised the Joe Biden Administration to accept that Ukraine must “cede some territory” to Russia, saying that the top political leadership in Washington DC should ensure the US would “not write more blank checks” to fund the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He stressed: “We cannot make strategic decisions based on stark morality tales. We have to figure out what is in America’s best interest. We have a food crisis that is getting worse because of the prolonged war in Eastern Europe. We have an energy crisis that is threatening to swamp multiple allied governments in Western Europe. What is in America’s best interest is to accept that Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians, and we need to bring this war to a close.” Vance added: “When I think about the great human tragedy here, hundreds of thousands of eastern Europeans, innocent, have been killed in this conflict. The thing that is in our interest and in theirs is to stop the killing.“

It is evident in the senator’s statement that it would not be possible for the US and its Western allies to back Ukraine for a longer period. They would have to strike a compromise with Russia mainly because of the Gaza crisis. If the US continues to back Ukraine, then the political scenario in West Asia shall deteriorate.

Evidently, it seems that the West would have to concentrate either on Ukraine or on West Asia.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das