It seems that Bamako will follow the path of Kabul and Damascus as Mali may soon fall to the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated Salafi-jihadist militant organisation active across the Sahel region of West Africa.

After the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, the JNIM is now sending a strong message of seizing power through armed operations in the eighth-largest country in Africa. Reports suggest that the Malian Government Forces have been consistently losing ground and are currently in retreat in many rural and some urban areas in the face of continuous attacks and strategic blockades by the JNIM.

Considering the progress of the JNIM, defence analysts have claimed that the fall of Bamako is only a matter of time, stressing that the capital city is under immense pressure and its immediate, as well as cinematic, collapse is quite possible. Although the Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company and a mercenary network (used to run by Yevgeny Prigozhin until his death in 2023), has demonstrated impressive capabilities in the Ukraine War, it faces significant difficulties in fighting against the JNIM in Mali. It may be noted that the Malian Government hired the Russian military company to eliminate the JNIM fighters.

In fact, the JNIM, authorised by al-Qaeda, has established its dominance across the entire Sahel region, extending to the borders of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin and Togo. This outfit is not only fighting against the Malian Government Forces and the Wagner Group, but also against the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorists who are active in some regions of Mali.

Significantly, the declared ally of the JNIM in this fight is the Tuareg rebel forces (Strategic Framework for the Defence of the People of Azawad or CSP-DPA), which claim to believe in democratic, secular and nationalist ideals. Tuareg rebel forces are basically Tuareg nomadic groups, primarily in Mali and Niger, fighting for greater autonomy or independence for their traditional Saharan homeland, Azawad. They are seeking self-determination and an independent Azawad, clashing with the Malian Government and Russian-backed forces, notably after the collapse of the 2015 Peace Deal.

Launching a pincer attack, the JNIM forces have effectively besieged the Malian capital of Bamako. They have constantly attacked the main roads connecting to the capital city in an attempt to cut off food and fuel supplies. Several Army and Air Bases are under the control of the JNIM. Their blockades and direct attacks on key infrastructures, like airports and military installations, have proven that they have already brought their campaign close to the capital.

Meanwhile, security experts are of the opinion that it would not be possible for the JNIM to seize power in Mali as smoothly as the Taliban did (in Afghanistan) in 2001 or the HTS did (in Syria) in 2024. The fighting is expected to be protracted, especially after neighbouring Algeria’s recent announcement that it would not allow any jihadist outfit to seize power in its bordering countries.

Meanwhile,

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das