The ongoing political turmoil in West Asia may take a new turn, with Turkey planning to invade Syria and Israel. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has decided to make a bold step after considering the political instability in Syria, Palestine, Iran, Yemen and other parts of West Asia.

During his first Cabinet meeting of the year (2025), the Turkish President hinted that his Army might target the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). He told his Cabinet colleagues: “A new era has begun in Syria… Turkey has shown what kind of will it has to protect its survival and security. If it comes to that again, ‘we may come suddenly one night’. The circle is narrowing for the separatist organisation and its extensions in Syria.” He said: “As the government and the alliance, we will achieve our goal of a terror-free Turkey, one way or another. Of course, we hope this will happen safely. If this road is blocked and dynamited, then we will not hesitate to strike with the iron fist of the state wrapped in velvet gloves.”

The Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD), a Washington DC-based nonpartisan research institute, published an article on January 8, 2025, explaining President Erdoğan’s real intention. In that article, author Dr Sinan Ciddi, an expert in Turkish Politics, stated that Ankara started laying the groundwork for a military assault in order to neutralise the SDF as the Joe Biden Administration nears the end of its term. It may be noted that the Turkish-backed militias, operating as the Syrian National Army, got involved in clashes with the SDF in recent times.

The SDF, which played an important role in combating the Islamic State (ISIS), is facing an existential threat as it is fighting against the Syrian National Army to defend its autonomous zone in northern part of Syria. At the same time, the Syrian Kurds and other communities have started staging protests against the jihadist government in this region. Hence, Ciddi believes that the Turkish President’s ambitions would make the situation worse in Syria.

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led interim government in Damascus, too, has raised a serious concern. Although HTS chief Abu Mohammad al-Julani (or Abu Mohammed al-Golani; born Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in 1982) has made an attempt to present a rebranded image of the outfit, no one can ignore the historical connections of the HTS to extremist groups, like ISIS and al-Qaeda.

Shadi al-Waisi, the Syria Interim Minister of Justice, has found himself at the centre of deeply embarrassing revelations about his past in Idlib, with two recently surfaced videos showing him supervising the executions of two women accused of prostitution and adultery in January 2015. Anas Khattab, the newly appointed Intelligence Chief of Syria, is not only a UN designated terrorist, but also has previous connection to ISIS-linked al-Nusra Front. Also, he was previously recruited by Turkish intelligence service MIT. Despite the presence of such people in the interim government, Head of Syria’s Women’s Affairs Office Aisha al-Dibs has made clear that she would “not allow space for those who disagree with my views (on women’s affairs)”. All these indicate the challenges that the interim government is facing.

Furthermore, there are a number of members of the interim Cabinet who hold dual Syrian-Turkish citizenship. One of them is Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaybani who earned a Master’s Degree in Political Science and International Relations from Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University in 2022 and a PhD in the same field in 2024. A section of the top HTS leadership has declared that the interim government would operate under Islamic Law and delay elections for up to four years! Such an announcement raises serious doubts about the HTS chief al-Julani’s commitment to representative governance.

In such a scenario, President Erdoğan plans to install a pliable regime in Damascus that would ultimately serve the strategic interests of Turkey. Ankara is also ready to offer defence aid, training and financial support for reconstruction works to Damascus. To fulfil his dream, the Turkish President may also help the HTS to eliminate the SDF! Reports suggest that Ankara has started deploying troops along the Turkey-Syria border, signalling a full-scale military incursion. If Tukey manages to invade Syria, then it will certainly try to occupy Israel.

As expected, Israel is closely monitoring the activities of Turkey. In its latest report, Israel’s Nagel Commission has mentioned that stronger ties between Turkey and the HTS-led interim government in Syria could pose a security threat to the Jewish Nation. Therefore, Israel may seek the US’ support to prevent a disaster in near future. The next couple of months are quite crucial for Syria, Israel and Turkey.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das