One can find a vast sea on one side of a piece of land that looks like a rhino horn, with pirates roaming in this particular region of the Dark Continent. The US has decided to recognise this territory as a new country, courtesy Donald John Trump!

Somalia is situated in the easternmost part of the African continent, popularly known as the Horn of Africa, a large peninsula in East Africa. The country is bordered by Ethiopia to the west, Djibouti to the northwest, Kenya to the southwest, Gulf of Aden to the north and the Indian Ocean to the east. Majority of the citizens of this East African nation make a living through piracy as a civil war has been going on there for a long time. Taking advantage of this situation, the US has prepared a blueprint to divide the country into two! Trump is all set to take charge as the 47th President of the US on January 20, 2025. The Western media reported that he would concentrate on East Africa immediately after assuming office and recognise Somaliland, the autonomous region of Somalia, as a new country. With this, the US President-elect would directly challenge China in Africa.

Anti-US rebel groups had occupied the northern part of Somalia after the end of the civil war in 1991. They named the area, adjacent to the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland. Since then, an autonomous government has controlled this vast territory. Although no international organisation, including the UN, is yet to recognise it as a separate nation, several countries, like Ethiopia and the UAE, maintain close contact with the autonomous government in Hargeisa because of the strategic location of Somaliland, apart from signing several port agreements.

The US, too, is interested in strengthening ties with Somaliland in an attempt to increase its influence in the Gulf of Aden and also in the Horn of Africa. Political analysts are of the opinion that the entire region may be in turmoil, if the incoming Trump Administration recognises Somaliland as a separate nation. In that case, Somalia may experience civil war yet again, while Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea could also witness bloodbath. The relation between the African Union (AU) and the US may deteriorate, as well. As a result, the US may have to pay a heavy price at the international level.

According to Hudson University analyst Joshua Meservey, autonomous Somaliland has proven that it is capable of running the country. However, Somalia shall never accept a separate Somaliland. The regional peace shall depend on whether or not Somalia will accept Somaliland as a separate country. Yinka Adegoke, a veteran journalist of Semafor, stressed that Somaliland would have to accept a cruel deal with the US to get recognition as a separate state as the Pentagon wants to use its strategic location to build naval bases there. Such a move would help Washington DC to counter the influence of China in that particular region, believes Adegoke.

In an interview in 2022, a senior US Navy official said that Beijing’s dominance in the Indo-Pacific Region was constantly increasing, prompting Washington DC to station 60% of the US Naval Forces in that region. He also said that the US might send more Naval ships to the Indo-Pacific Region in the coming years, apart from setting up new naval bases. Now, the US wants to achieve its goal by recognising Somaliland as a separate state. It may be noted that the economy of neighbouring Djibouti is heavily dependent on military bases! The Government of Djibouti has leased lands to several countries, including the US, China, Japan and France, for setting up military bases. Hence, Washington DC is considering building separate military bases in the region to fully control the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

According to a section of defence analysts, China may not allow the US to fulfil its dream as the Xi Jinping Administration in Beijing has started holding talks with Mogadishu for more investments in the African nation. They are of the opinion that the Asian Giant shall openly back Somalia to stop the US from dividing the country. If the US recognises Somaliland to build naval bases there, China may also make a desperate attempt to set up military bases in Somalia. In that case, Somalia and Somaliland may get involved in a bloody war because of the two superpowers! There is also a possibility that secessionist movements in other African countries shall get a boost, if Somaliland emerges as an independent state.

The autonomous government of Somaliland reportedly held diplomatic talks with Ethiopia earlier in 2024 and signed some agreements. As per one of those agreements, Somaliland leased 12km of its coastline to Ethiopia for the next 50 years. Ethiopia has decided to use this area for military and commercial purposes. Somaliland could sign similar agreements with the US after getting recognition as a separate state. Once, former US Army Chief General (Retired) Wesley Kanne Clark reportedly said that after 9/11, the US had planned to take out seven countries in five years, “starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and finishing off, Iran“. It may be noted that South Sudan officially separated from Sudan on January 21, 2011. This time, it is supposed to be Somalia’s turn!

The global community has warned the US not to encourage separatism by recognising Somaliland. Else, its venom shall spread to other parts of Asia in the future!

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das