The Iranian presidential takeover by conservative Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi could point out a resumption of hostilities by the Islamic Republic, all the more so as the Joe Biden Administration is already signalling a gradual detachment from West Asia for a more concentrated approach to the Indo-Pacific, especially in dealing with a rising and more assertive China.

The Every Morning Asia portal recently reported that Iran’s most recent animosities were based on a belief in Tehran that Washington DC was unwilling to escalate an armed conflict with its Persian nemesis, and the US decline in the region strengthened the Iranian leverage in the rounds of negotiations held in Vienna on the American return to the Nuclear Agreement.

Following the announcement of military withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Biden signalled in a meeting in Washington DC with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi the retreat of US troops from Iraq by the end of 2021, with only the staff responsible for training, technical expertise and shared intelligence remaining active.

The new Raisi Administration could also seal the preservation of the legacy of current Supreme Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although Khamenei would be willing to negotiate with the West in order to avoid an economic collapse, followed by a humanitarian crisis in Iran, his political line follows the path of contempt and distrust of Western institutions and their State Political Actors.

During his tenure, the Supreme Leader presented the West as a bogeyman ready to shut down a rising and prosperous Iran. This message has had a positive impact for the conservative branch in Tehran, especially due to the polarised failure of the Moderate Administration of former President Hassan Rouhani to make peace with the West. Raisi was not chosen to deviate from this path, but to carry the message forward.

What Washington DC does not seem to understand is that West Asia cannot be ignored. Over the decades, many US Administrations have tried to disconnect from the region, but the threat following the American exit brought the US back. This time will not be anything different.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das