US Intelligence and Spy Agencies have claimed that the fear of an upcoming war between India and Pakistan has increased more than ever before since Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India in 2014. In its Annual Report submitted to the US Congress, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has mentioned that the provocation from the Pakistani side has always been there. However, the fear of war has increased in response to that provocation after Modi became the PM. As both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, a minor tension could turn into a Nuclear War at any time. The US Intelligence Officials believe that terrorism in Kashmir or militant activities anywhere in India could spark a war between the two South Asian neighbours!

According to the US Intelligence Officials, India’s border issue with China over Galwan in Ladakh has not yet been resolved. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has informed the Congress that the situation had improved with the withdrawal of troops from Galwan, after lengthy negotiations between New Delhi and Beijing. However, China could trigger a war with India at any moment, creating trouble for the entire region.

The US Intelligence Officers have attempted a further explanation that Chinese President Xi Jinping is responsible for this tension, as he planned to invest billions in building road links across Asia, soon after coming to power. They are of the opinion that two main objectives of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative are to boost Chinese trade by resolving the transportation problems and to establish Beijing’s hegemony in Asia. There is another intension, as well! China wants to dump tonnes of waste in other countries.

Meanwhile, India’s opposition to the Belt and Road Initiative has created an obstacle for China in implementing this project. With New Delhi diplomatically opposing President Xi’s Dream Project, China may decide to go to a direct clash with India. So, there is every possibility of breaking out of a war in South Asia.

Soon after the Office of the Director of National Intelligence submitted the Report to the US Congress, the Joe Biden Administration in Washington DC hinted that it would help India work for an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific Region. Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar welcomed the US’ decision, saying on April 14 that the “Indo-Pacific concept is a signal that India won’t be confined between the Malacca Strait and Gulf of Aden”. He stated that apart from the US, India would work with partners, like Australia and France, to ensure an open and inclusive region.

While taking part in a virtual discussion with his Australian counterpart Marise Payne and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, Dr Jaishankar stressed: “Indo-Pacific…. It reflects a more contemporary world. It is actually overcoming the Cold War, not reinforcing it.” The minister insisted that India placed its neighbourhood across a greater swathe of the globe, keeping in mind the changing Geopolitical Equations, especially in Asia. He described India’s new view of its role as a return to history, stating that New Delhi’s definition of its strategic backyard was based on former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s concept that he had articulated in 2000. Vajpayee used to say that India’s strategic backyard comprises of a huge area, stretching between the Straits of Malacca and the Gulf of Aden.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das