The geopolitical landscape of West Asia has become heated since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Chief (Political Bureau) of the Palestinian Hamas Movement, on July 31, 2024 in Tehran. A day before the demise of Haniyeh, senior Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr (often spelled Fouad Shukar) was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Although Israel claimed responsibility for Shukr’s death, saying that he masterminded the Majdal Shams attack on July 27, 2024 which killed 12 Druze children; the Jewish State has made no comment on Haniyeh’s death so far. However, Iran blasted the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, for assassinating Haniyeh.

It may be noted that the Islamic Republic responded to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus in early April (2024) by firing nearly 300 drones and missiles on Israel! At that time, its own missile defence system, as well as aid from the US and other allies, saved the Jewish Nation. If a country retaliates in such a manner for attacking its embassy, then it is really difficult to predict how it would respond to the killing of one of its special guests on its soil. With proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, already spread across several countries in West Asia, Tehran has the opportunity to launch attacks on Israel from multiple directions. Israel is one of the US’ most reliable diplomatic partners in this region. Hence, Washington DC has started increasing its military presence in West Asia due to the fear of an attack on its ally!

Needless to say, Israel, by eliminating Haniyeh in Tehran, has demonstrated that it has the ability to infiltrate enemy territories in order to carry out successful operations. At the same time, Tel Aviv has exposed the weaknesses of the Iranian security and intelligence agencies. Immediately after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Tel Aviv sent a strong message to the Palestinian Movement, saying that no Hamas leader would be safe in any part of the globe! However, Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu‘s policy of unbridled militarism could spell trouble for Israel!

It may be noted that the assassination of Haniyeh took place when Israel and Hamas made some progress in talks on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release. Haniyeh, among Hamas leaders, was a relatively moderate one who always advocated for a ceasefire. Perhaps, Netanyahu has sent a clear signal that he wanted to continue the war by eliminating Haniyeh in Tehran. At the same time, the Israeli Prime Minister has actually provoked Iran by targeting the Hamas leader in Tehran.

‘Divine Wrath’
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, warned his country on August 15, 2024, stressing that “backing down from retaliation against Israel could invite ‘divine wrath’“! Although the Islamic Republic has not yet launched any direct attack on Israel, the 86-year-old Supreme Leader’s comments have triggered a sensation across the globe!

Khamenei further claimed that the retreat, be it military, political or economic, would invite severe divine punishment. Iran International quoted the Supreme Leader as saying: “Governments that yield to the demands of today’s dominant powers, regardless of their nation’s size or strength, can defy these pressures if they draw on the strength of their people and accurately assess their adversaries’ true capabilities.“

If Iran and Israel engage in an armed conflict, then the US and its Western allies would get involved in it. After the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus in April, the Joe Biden Administration somehow managed to prevent an armed conflict between the two West Asian nations through diplomacy. However, the assassination of Haniyeh has completely changed the equation, with a lot depending on the role of the US in ensuring peace in West Asia.

Now, the global peace depends on whether the lukewarm political situation in West Asia subsides or turns into a conflagration!

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das