Eric Lonergan – an English Macro Fund Manager, Economist and Writer – has claimed that German-speaking Czech author Franz Kafka had predicted BREXIT in the 20th Century! In an article titled ‘Brexit: Everyone Got It Wrong’, Lonergan mentioned that Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU) would be the win win situation for the Leavers, as well as the Remainers or Stayers. He said that both would end up saying “We never left” even after the completion of the ongoing BREXIT process.

Lonergan recalled that it was not the economists, but a novelist who had rightly predicted the future of Britain! In his novel The Castle, Kafka had created the character of a protagonist – named ‘K’ – who went through what may be called a never-ending bureaucratic process, seeking citizenship from a distant castle.. The Castle, however, was impenetrable in that way! Towards the end of the story, K had managed to receive a second-class status, but a day after he left the world. Interestingly, Kafka himself passed away before finishing the novel!

According to Lonergan, BREXIT is inevitable, as was predicted, in a way, by Kafka! He stressed that although Economists made an attempt to be specific, while describing the BREXIT issue, their attempts failed to find the real cause behind it. It seems that the Economists made a mistake by assuming everything else remained the same, added the author. Lonergan advised people, especially the Economists, not to predict anything on the basis of a cyclical forecast. Terming BREXIT as the latest case of everyone got it wrong, he stated that Kafka would have narrated the BREXIT in a different manner. According to Lonergan, it becomes clear from The Castle that the great Czech novelist could have guessed the national angst about many things in Britain, as the British Economy has been thriving for long. Kafka would have stressed on the deteriorating unemployment scenario in the European nation, and would also have mentioned some real, as well as some fictitious, issues, such as “the distribution of wealth, the burden of monstrous financial errors being placed on the poor, and the imminent invasion of bellicose foreigners from a distant land“.

In his article, Lonergan mentioned that a section of elitist bureaucrats blasted another section for patronising the former in recognisable, but alien accents. Later, the elite turned to the people of Britain in an attempt to settle the dispute… And, the people decided to “leave the big foreign Castle for a smaller local one”.

Lonergan believes that for Kafka, “‘Leave’ means embarking on an endless process of trying to leave, never knowing whether or not you achieve the same… even when one dies”. At the same time, he admitted that the issue was not so simple. He continued: “The population, acting without virtue, has unwittingly acted virtuously. Their wise priests had predicted economic calamity. But something else happens: expecting disaster, the speculative elite cause a huge fall in the exchange rate – never before has the small castle been such a great place to visit, export from, or buy assets in.” Lonergan added: “The Central Banking elite vindicates this move in foreign exchange markets, by engaging in a baffling series of policies with acronyms and impossible-to-fathom effects. The educated, hard-working, youth from the large, ageing foreign castle continue to arrive, work, and support the small castle – which, of course, is still actually a part of its larger neighbour.”

Meanwhile, Lonergan strongly criticised the Government of Britain for punishing the poor for the errors committed by the banking elite, and then changing the track. As it was an error made by the old elite, it became difficult for the Government to reverse this shrinking of the State. The Government introduced a public employment programme, and set up a new Ministry for the special metropolitan elite, having expertise in trade.

Kafka would have said that the economy was booming, but everyone got it wrong. “If they hadn’t got it wrong, there wouldn’t have been a boom,” insisted Lonergan. He came to the conclusion that the elite thinkers indeed produced new models, showing that booms happened only if everyone made errors.

Therefore, everyone in Britain is well aware of the meaning of Leaving. However, there are some people who have expressed their doubt over the sustainability of the boom. Unfortunately, the hope of following the right path went in vain…

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das