The global community is closely monitoring the ongoing political developments in Niger, where a military coup took place on July 26, 2023. The Armed Forces ousted the Government of President Mohamed Bazoum, triggering a political crisis. As the supporters of President Bazoum expressed solidarity with the deposed leader, the military got involved in clashes with them. Various countries have expressed serious concern over the political unrest in Niger, and started withdrawing their embassy officials from the west African nation.

The Western nations have strongly condemned the Military Junta for detaining the President and other senior politicians after overthrowing the Democratically-elected Government. As Niger was the leading supplier of uranium to Europe, France and other Western nations were fighting against jihadist outfits in the region with the support of the ousted President. However, the Military Junta does not want Europe to interfere in Niger’s internal affairs.

Experts believe that the coup in Niger is a huge setback for the Western World and its crackdown on the Islamist extremism in West Africa. It may be noted that it is the seventh military coup in West and Central Africa in the past three years. As the Chief of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was seen celebrating the coup, Foreign Policy experts are of the opinion that Russia might have triggered the crisis in Niger through Wagner Group. The Wagner Group is a Russian state-funded Private Military Company (PMC) composed of mercenaries. The Group is also considered as a de facto Private Army of Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s former close ally Prigozhin. CNN has reported that Prigozhin also blamed the situation in Niger on the legacy of colonialism.

Interestingly, many have joined the pro-Junta rallies in Niger after the coup. They held Russian flags and raised anti-French slogans. BBC has reported that a Niger businessman proudly wore an outfit in the colours of the Russian flag, showing hostility towards the West and inclination towards Russia.

Talking to Indian news portal LiveMint, Professor Harsh V Pant, the Vice President of Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, has said that there is a strong possibility of Russia’s involvement in the Niger coup. He stated: “Yes, there seems to be a great degree of instability in the entire region of Sahel where one by one we are looking at these coups happening and the instability spreading, the rise of the Islamist groups, etc. I think the role Wagner Group is playing is not evident, but increasingly, as France is getting blamed for mal-governance and not being able to manage Islamist groups, the void of being filled by the Wagner Group and in the guise of the Wagner Group, Russia.“

According to Professor Pant, the Democratic Governments have failed to take necessary actions against the terror groups active in the region. He stressed: “It is not entirely clear how the entry of Russia in this part of the world helps whether in resolving the governance issues or in managing the Islamists. But I think the institutional failures of Democratic Governments to deliver is opening up the space for all kinds of groups to emerge and for groups, like Wagner, to play an important role. In that context, perhaps the growing influence of Russia would not be a surprise in the region.“

The experts believe that Russia is trying to trigger a global instability that could change the international order for maintaining peace in the coming years. They also believe that the recent coup in Niger shall certainly jeopardise broader Western efforts to tackle Islamic extremism in Africa.

Meanwhile, Senior Research Fellow of Asia Society Policy Institute Dr Rishi Gupta told LiveMint: “Though the Wagner Group has praised the coup and sees it as a step towards independence from the West, it is crucial to remember that the Kremlin has voiced worries about the situation, particularly in response to the Wagner Group’s celebration of the coup. Despite this, it is important to keep in mind that the situation in Niger demonstrates that Russia has a scenario for causing global instability that could threaten the international order for maintaining peace in the longer term.” He added: “At the same time, it is crucial to remember that Niger has been dealing with Islamist Extremism led by fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State for years. It is hard to foresee how the coup in Niger will affect broader Western efforts to combat Islamic extremism in Africa, but it is certain that the coup in Niger may jeopardise broader Western efforts to tackle Islamic extremism in Africa.” Dr Gupta stressed: “Also, the coup can result in a power vacuum that will be detrimental to the overall efforts of the security environment. With the present regime in Niger, the country will experience prolonged instability, and the Western countries and international organisations working towards combating Islamic extremism in Africa will face severe setbacks.“

Dr Martand Jha, a Doctoral Fellow at Russian and Central Asian Studies (School of International Studies) of New Delhi-based Jawaharlal Nehru University, is of the opinion that the Wagner Group is trying hard to expand its presence in Africa. He told the Indian news portal: “To my mind, Niger was colonised by the French, people there are fed up with French loot and plunder. Russia seems to be a favourable ally. In fact, Moscow is looking at the coup favourably. On the point of the Wagner group, it is already pretty active in neighbouring areas, like Mali, and wants to expand its presence in Africa.” He added: “But I am not sure which side would emerge more powerful in future in Niger, whether it is President Putin or the Wagner group, only time will tell.“

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das