Indian PM Modi Wins A Third Term, But…
As the result of month-long seven-phase (April 19 – June 1, 2024) Parliamentary Elections of India was declared on June 4, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is gearing up to form the Government in the South Asian country for the third consecutive time! However, PM Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have failed to secure absolute majority (272 seats) after ruling the country for a decade! Although the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has managed to win 293 seats in the 545-seat Lower House (the Lok Sabha) of the Indian Parliament, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), led by the Indian National Congress (INC) Party, bagged 234 seats and Independent candidates emerged victorious in 16 seats. PM Modi’s smaller mandate clearly shows the Indian Middle Class losing patience with the Modi Government. Also, the BJP’s declining hold in urban seats shows Middle Class people feeling neglected!
The BJP, which has become a purely authoritarian party in recent times due to Modi’s 10-year-long tenure as the prime minister, has won 240 seats (32 short of absolute majority) to emerge as the single largest party in the Lower House. Hence, PM Modi has become dependent on alliance partners – Janata Dal (United) (12 seats) and Telugu Desam Party (16 seats) – to form the Government. The JD(U) and the TDP have already claimed the Speaker’s post and a couple of ministries, putting the BJP under pressure. This development has made it clear that PM Modi would have a tough job in his hands for the next five years! It is quite difficult for an authoritarian or populist leader to completely change his personality, as well as attitude, and run a Coalition Government on the basis of mutual cooperation (with partners of the ruling alliance).
Since 2014, his close aides have helped Prime Minister Modi to gradually turn liberal and secular India into a Hindu State, based on religious hatred! During election rallies, an over-confident Modi openly declared that his party would win 300 seats and the NDA would get more than 400 parliamentary seats! However, the people of India did not let this happen. According to political analysts, the outcome of the 18th Parliamentary Elections is basically a warning for PM Modi. It has also revealed the deep dissatisfaction among voters in Modi’s authoritarian regime.
Nobody is supposed to know what Modi will do… when, where and how! He has already hinted at new steps in very suggestive terms. After the conclusion of his 45-hour meditation at the Vivekananda Rock Memorial in southern Indian Province of Tamil Nadu’s Kanniyakumari on June 1 (2024), PM Modi reportedly uttered: “My mind is filled with so many experiences and emotions… I feel a boundless flow of energy within myself.” He added: “We need to dream new dreams, convert them into reality and begin living those dreams.” Those who have observed Modi for a long time know that he is not a poetic dreamer at all. For him, dreams mean new action plans, like amending the Constitution or implementing the National Register of Citizens (NRC – the register containing names of Indian citizens). If his government can successfully implement the NRC, then any protester could be jailed for an indefinite period of time. It has been experimentally practiced in the northeastern Indian Province of Assam. Authoritarian rulers have always labelled a section of civil society, who are actually or potentially dissidents, as outsiders. This is called Othering. Addressing election rallies, Modi used phrases, like Ghuspethiye (Infiltrator), in an attempt to explain his future plan!
The Mass Rejection
In a major upset in the Faizabad parliamentary constituency (where the temple town of Ayodhya is situated), Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Awadhesh Prasad defeated sitting BJP MP Lallu Singh by a margin of 54,567 votes. As per the Election Commission data, Prasad bagged 5,54,289 votes, while Lallu Singh received 4,99,722 and Sachidanand Pandey of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) managed to win 46,407 votes. Although the Ram Temple has been one of the main driving forces of Hindutva Politics for the past three decades, the BJP lost the constituency three months after the inauguration of the Ram Temple. It is indeed a significant development, as people of Faizabad have made it clear that they are no longer interested in Communal Politics.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi registered victory from the Varanasi constituency of the northern Indian Province of Uttar Pradesh with 1,52,513 votes. Ajay Rai, the Congress candidate who lost to Modi, was not a heavyweight candidate compared to the Prime Minister. However, Modi received 6,12,970 votes, while Rai won 4,60,457 votes and BSP candidate Ather Jamal Lari finished third with 33,766 votes. Ahead of the election, political analysts predicted that PM Modi would defeat Rai by a record margin. However, it did not happen. The PM got 54.24% of the total votes cast in Varanasi. He certainly registered a victory, arithmetically. However, the Prime Minister probably knows that such victories are as pale as defeats. During the initial rounds of counting, the PM was trailing by 6,000 votes! Before the election, Modi had left no stone unturned to use Varanasi in order to highlight the greatness of Hindutva Politics, as he renovated the Kashi Vishwanath Temple, worshiped there, took a dip in the River Ganges (in Varanasi) and wept openly! Interestingly, the performance of the BJP in these two constituencies with a strong presence of Hindutva Politics has triggered tremors for the ruling party!
This time, the BJP’s Politics of Division on the basis of religion has left a large section of the Indian population frustrated. There is a difference between building a temple and demolishing a mosque in order to construct a temple there. The BJP thought that all the Hindus would support this act! Perhaps, PM Modi and his party have realised that elections cannot be won through religious polarisation, alone! PM Modi shall certainly rule India for another five years. However, he would have to remember the message that there should be a limit to Politics of Division, beyond which people get angry and act otherwise.
Those, who believe that the outcome of the recently-held Parliamentary Polls would at least dampen Narendra Modi’s audacity, seem to have misunderstood the reality! Only a simple majority is enough to amend most of the laws, while only some constitutional changes require a two-thirds majority. With the government’s huge treasury, various institutions and software, like Pegasus, at its disposal; not all the Members of Parliament (MP) can stay on top of persuasion.
Interestingly, the people of India have not abandoned Modi even after experiencing his governance for the last 10 years! Instead, a higher percentage of people have voted for him than in 2019. PM Modi and his BJP have received overwhelming support in big cities, like New Delhi, or in provinces, like Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh, where mostly wealthy upper-caste landowners reside. Many of those people are particularly sensitive to the BJP’s rhetoric of Patriotism as they served the Indian Armed Forces in the past. In a sense, PM Modi has earned the support of wealthy urban people. However, it is the poor rural Indians who voted against the ruling party, sending a strong Opposition to the Parliament (to maintain checks and balances). Only time can decide India’s destiny!
The Return Of Coalition Era
(Talk Diplomacy) In a surprising turn of events, the BJP, led by Prime Minister Modi, has failed to secure one-third consecutive single-party majority in India’s Parliamentary Elections. Despite this setback, Modi shall remain in power and lead a Coalition Government. This shift heralds significant implications for India’s economic, security and developmental policies.
The core drivers of the Modi Government’s economic strategy will persist, with a focus on addressing India’s high goods trade deficit and the migration of agricultural labour to urban areas, seeking formal employment. However, the Coalition Government may struggle to push through tough economic reforms, requiring legislative changes, such as the streamlining of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
India’s security partnerships, particularly with the US, are expected to remain stable despite the Coalition Government. The primary catalyst for these alliances is the growing assertiveness of China. Modi’s likely coalition partners generally do not possess strong anti-Western sentiments, ensuring continuity in defence cooperation and joint initiatives with the US.
Development efforts may face hurdles under a Coalition Government. Major national programmes initiated by the Modi Administration, including digital payments and access to basic services, could see slower implementation. The concept of cooperative-competitive federalism, aimed at pushing provinces to compete in development, might be harder to enforce, potentially impacting the ambitious goal of 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030.
For advocates of liberal values, this election underscores the resilience of India’s Democracy. The outcome demonstrates that despite the BJP’s decade-long dominance and sophisticated political strategies, Indian voters remain unpredictable. Additionally, coalition dynamics may moderate the BJP’s more divisive policies, fostering a more inclusive political environment.
With inputs from Talk Diplomacy
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