The relationship was sweet a few years ago. In fact, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli (more commonly known as KP Oli) – who had long been suffering from kidney diseases – visited India in March 2014 for receiving medical treatment. After being discharged from New Delhi’s Grandy Hospital, he had thanked the Indian government for taking care of him.
However, the scenario has changed in recent times. As Oli is all set to become the prime minister of Nepal, the Narendra Modi government in India is gearing up to face new (foreign policy) challenges.
Oli, the senior leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) or CPN-UML, has a classic rapport with the Chinese political leaders. Some diplomats are of the opinion that Beijing encouraged the CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Centre) to form a pre-poll alliance, which has got absolute majority and is set to form the government in Kathmandu.

KP Oli

Oli had served as prime minister from October 2015 to August 2016. At that time, ties between Nepal and India were at very low. As the Communist leader is ready to become the PM for the second time, India has started closely monitoring the ongoing political development in the Himalayan country. Indian foreign policy experts have said that China’s influence on Nepal will definitely increase in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Indian Foreign Secretary Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has highlighted New Delhi’s ‘traditional’ stand on the neighbouring country. Speaking at an event in the Indian capital a couple of days ago, he said that the change in government in Kathmandu wouldn’t affect the bilateral ties. He explained that India’s relation with any of its neighbours would not depend on a ‘third’ country. Dr Jaishankar argued that China could not influence Nepal’s ties with India because New Delhi and Kathmandu share close ‘cultural ties’.

However, some senior officials of the Indian External Affairs Ministry have a different view. They are of the opinion that Oli’s fondness for Beijing will allow China to increase its influence on Nepal. Indian strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney, too, has said that a communist government in Nepal will be beholden to Beijing. “In his earlier stint as PM, Oli stoked tensions with the plains people (Madhesis) and with India. Dubbed ‘Oily Oli’ by his critics, Oli made a scapegoat of India for Nepal’s political and constitutional crisis. His return to power will be bad news for India,” stressed Chellaney.
So, the Left alliance’s brilliant performance and pro-India Nepali Congress’ poor show in the recently-held Parliamentary Elections in Nepal may be considered as a setback for India in the neighbourhood. At least, it can’t be seen as a positive development for New Delhi.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das