‘Orphan’ Lebanon is going through a deep crisis. The political situation in the country has deteriorated since Saad al-Hariri resigned as prime minister on November 4. After considering the current situation, Saudi Arabia has advised its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible. Soon after the Saudi Foreign Ministry made the move over the weekend, other West Asian nations, too, urged their citizens not to stay in Lebanon.
Bahrain was the first country to express concern over the changing political scenario in the region immediately after Hariri’s resignation and issued travel advisories for its nationals travelling to Lebanon. Later, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait issued a similar order for their citizens.
According to foreign policy experts and diplomats, the crisis took a new turn because of the four Arab nations’ decision to issue a travel ban simultaneously. Experts are of the opinion that the ongoing crisis is only going to get bigger (than the financial crisis). The four-nation Saudi alliance could impose more restrictions in near future. Although there is no indication of military action, the situation is progressing in that direction.

Saad al-Hariri

Experts opine that a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a real possibility, and Lebanon will have to pay a heavy price in that case. After holding talks with the Iranian leaders, Hariri arrived in Saudi Arabia on November 4 and made the shocking announcement. Hariri accused Iran of interfering in Arab affairs and throwing his country into deeper uncertainty. He also condemned Iran’s attempt to increase its influence in West Asia and strongly criticised Tehran’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah – the Shiite militia and political party that was part of his ‘national unity’ Cabinet – for creating troubles.
The former PM explained that the Lebanese population is divided into two camps. Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah group runs one camp, while another is run by ‘Sunni’ Saudi Arabia. Hariri, who was leading the second group, claimed that Iran and its ally Hezbollah have taken control of the whole country. Since Hariri issued the statement, the Saudi-Iran relations have deteriorated.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has warned Saudi Arabia of Tehran’s ‘might’, saying: “You know the might and place of the Islamic republic. People, more powerful than you, have been unable to do anything against the Iranian people. The US and its allies have mobilised all their capabilities against us and achieved nothing.”
But, where is Hariri? On November 11, Lebanon claimed that Saudis ‘kidnapped’ the former PM. Lebanese President Michel Aoun urged Riyadh to clarify the reasons why Hariri has not returned to Beirut since his resignation, saying: “The obscurity regarding Hariri’s conditions makes anything that he says or does not reflect truth.” President Aoun also rubbished the Saudi government’s claim that Hariri is free and decided to resign because of Hezbollah.
According to sources close to Hariri’s party, the former Lebanese PM might have requested political asylum in France. However, French President Emmanuel Macron, who recently visited Riyadh, said that he did not receive any such request from Hariri.

As the West Asian crisis intensifies, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has sent his Foreign Minister Sameh Hassan Shoukry to Riyadh for holding talks with the Arab nations. “The foreign minister’s tour comes in the framework of permanent consultations between Egypt and Arab brothers on mutual relations and the conditions in the region, especially in the shadow of developments in Lebanon’s political arena,” said the Foreign Ministry in a statement.
Meanwhile, the Western countries have appealed for calm and freedom of movement for Hariri. France and the US expressed support for Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability amid heightening tensions between Beirut and Riyadh. It becomes important for all the countries in the region to respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence in order to restore peace. Or else, Lebanon will become Saudi Arabia’s next Yemen.

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das