An independence referendum held in Iraqi Kurdistan on September 25 and more than 92% people, who took part in it, supported the autonomy of the region. Obviously, the referendum provoked furious reaction of the Turkish government, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened the Kurds with a military invasion, saying that Ankara would freeze the pipeline transporting the Iraqi oil on the territory of Turkey.
At the same time, the Turkish Parliament extended the mandate on troops’ deployment in Syria and Iraq in case of security threats. Earlier, the media had reported that Ankara kept increasing its military presence on the Turkish-Syrian border.

On September 17, 80 vehicles were moved to Iskenderun and on September 21, Erdogan (in an interview to Reuters) claimed that he was ready to deploy the Army to Idlib. Also, Turkey reached an agreement with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), envisaging the FSA fighting against the Kurdish troops (just like during the Euphrates Shield operation).
However, a number of factors restrict Turkey’s military invasion.
Firstly, Syria and its allies, Russia in particular, deprecated the possible intervention. Together with Ankara, Moscow set up the de-escalation zone in Idlib and remained a guarantor of the ceasefire.
Secondly, in case of a full-scale conflict, Kurd-dominated southeast Turkey will be likely involved in it.
Thirdly, Erdogan can provoke Washington, which wouldn’t be too bold to take part and impose sanctions on the Turkish Republic acting against its interests.

Yet, despite all the mentioned and other reasons, Ankara is stepping up tension on the border and asserting pressure on the Kurds. Unfortunately, the situation isn’t going towards de-escalation and may develop into another conflict in northern Syria at any time.
Now, one can only hope for the reasonable decisions of the sides of the crisis.

Boundless Ocean of Politics has received this article from Mehmet Ersoy of Inside Syria Media Centre.

Mehmet Ersoy

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Published by Koushik Das

Koushik Das (born on May 16, 1976 in Kolkata) is a career journalist. Based in the Indian capital of New Delhi, Koushik writes mainly about foreign policies and current geopolitical issues, and rarely about other topics. His own political ideas are highly influenced by Antonio Gramsci, Louis Althusser, Michel Foucault, Michael Oakeshott and others. English philosopher and political theorist Oakeshott (Dec 11, 1901-Dec 19, 1990) says that “in political activity, men sail a boundless and bottomless sea. There is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting-place, nor appointed destination. But we have to keep afloat”. (Rationalism in Politics, 1962) As a student of Political Science, Koushik loves to share his views on issues, which have great impacts on his thought process (and also on India, South Asia and of course on the global community), with his readers through his website – Boundless Ocean of Politics. By doing so, he tries to keep himself afloat. You will find some of his articles in https://inserbia.info/today/ (https://inserbia.info/today/author/kou_das13_i/), as he has been trying to assess the global geopolitics since 2003. You can also mail him at kousdas@gmail.com View all posts by Koushik Das